This is an update of Idaho’s General Fund budget as of August 2012. It reflects changes that have occurred since the end of the 2012 Idaho Legislative Session. The primary documents used to produce this update are the Legislative Fiscal Report, the Budget Activities Summary, the Idaho General Fund Revenue Report, and the Idaho General Fund Budget Monitor. Additional unpublished information was obtained from LSO (Legislative Services Office).
FY 2012 General Fund actual revenue was $35.5 million higher than the DFM (Division of Financial Management) forecast released in January 2012, and $22.4 million higher than the Legislative revenue forecast used in the 2012 Legislative Session. The difference is due to three adjustments to General Fund revenue (HB417, HB661, and HB703) that were reflected in LSO’s end of session budget document (the Legislative Fiscal Report), but were not incorporated into DFM’s FY 2012 post-session revenue monitoring documents (the Idaho General Fund Revenue Report).
The following table summarizes the FY 2012 General Fund revenue results (figures are in millions of dollars):
FY 2012 net General Fund transfers as of the end of session were expected to be $9.8 million in, but ended the year actually $13.5 million out. This difference of negative $23.3 million was primarily due to a $23.6 million transfer out of the General Fund to the Budget Stabilization Fund. The remaining $0.3 million difference in net transfers into the General Fund were comprised of cancelled prior year encumbrances and various other transfers.FY 2012 actual General Fund transfers and expenditures also varied from the amounts expected at the close of the 2012 Legislative session. These, when combined with the actual revenue results, yielded a different FY 2012 General Fund ending balance (and corresponding FY 2013 beginning balance) than was expected at the end of the 2012 Legislative session.
FY 2012 actual General Fund expenditures were $4.3 million lower than the appropriated amount as of the end of the 2012 Legislative session. This was primarily the result of various agency year-end reversions of unexpended FY 2012 General Fund appropriations.
The net effect of the revenue, transfer, and expenditure variances from the 2012 Legislative session budget for FY 2012 is a $3.0 million larger FY 2012 ending balance (and corresponding FY 2013 beginning balance).
The following table summarizes the FY 2012 General Fund budget results (figures are in millions of dollars):
Due primarily to stronger than anticipated General Fund revenue growth in FY 2012, the FY 2013 General Fund budget year opened with a beginning balance of $99.6 million. That was $3.0 million higher than was anticipated at the end of the 2012 Legislative session. A number of other changes have occurred in the FY 2013 General Fund budget as a result of a) revised revenue forecast (released by DFM in August 2012) and b) updated transfer estimates.
DFM released its new General Fund revenue forecast for FY 2013 in August 2012. At $2,670.7 million it is $3.9 million higher than the original Executive revenue forecast released in January 2012 adjusted for 2012 Legislative session law changes ($2,700.3 – $33.5 = $2,666.8). It is also $36.6 million higher than the adjusted Legislative forecast used during the 2012 Legislative session for FY 2013 budgeting purposes ($2,667.6 – $33.5 = $2,634.1). There were almost a dozen law changes that impacted FY 2013 General Fund revenue, but the bulk of the change in the revenue stream is due to HB563, an income tax rate cut that reduces FY 2013 revenue by an estimated $35.7 million. The other ten bills with revenue impacts yielded a combined net increase in FY 2013 General Fund revenue of $2.2 million.
General Fund transfers expected in FY 2013 have changed from $24.2 million out to $33.0 million out. This $8.8 million increase in transfers out consists of $2.4 million associated with an increase in the estimated Budget Stabilization Fund transfer (from $23.5 million to $25.9 million) and $6.4 million associated with an increase in estimated deficiency warrants (from $0 to $6.4 million). Deficiency warrants are transfers made to pay for unexpected expenses such as firefighting costs, agricultural pest eradication, etc.
Estimated FY 2013 General Fund expenditures remain unchanged at $2,702.1 million. At this stage there are no identified expenditure adjustment (i.e., supplemental appropriation) needs for FY 2013.
Combined, the changes to the FY 2013 beginning balance, revenues, and transfers yield an estimated General Fund ending balance that is $35.2 million. That is $30.7 million higher than the $4.5 million FY 2013 ending balance expected as of the end of the 2012 Legislative session.
The following table summarizes the FY 2013 General Fund budget as of August 2012 (figures are in millions of dollars):
As a final note, the FY 2013 General Fund appropriation consists of $2,694.7 million in ongoing spending and $7.4 million in one-time spending. The FY 2013 revenue forecast consists of $2,665.7 million in ongoing revenue and $5.0 million of one-time revenue. This yields a current short-term structural imbalance (i.e., deficit) in the FY 2013 General Fund budget of $29.0 million ($2,665.7 million in ongoing revenue less $2,694.7 million in ongoing appropriations).
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